Balance of payments
- Record of value of all transactions between residents of one country with residents of all other countries in world over given period of time
- Two main parts of balance payment accounts
o Current account
§ Measure of the flow of funds from trade in goods and services plus other income flows
§ Usually sub-divided into three parts
· Balance of trade in goods
o Known as visible trade balance
o Measure of revenue received from exports of tangible goods minus expenditure on imports of tangible goods over given period of time
o Exports occur when international transaction relating to goods/services leads to inflow of money into country
o Imports occur when international transaction relating to goods/services leads to outflow of money from country
o When export revenue greater than import expenditure à surplus on balance of trade in goods
o When import expenditure greater than export revenue à deficit on balance of trade in goods
· Balance of trade in services
o Known as invisible trade balance
o Measure of revenue received from exports of services minus expenditure on imports of services over period of time
o Banking, insurance and tourism
· Net income flows
o Net investment incomes – measure of net monetary movement of profit, interest, and dividends moving into and out of country over given period of time. Domestic firms set up branches in other countries and any profits being repatriated will count as positive item in this account. Profits sent out of country by foreign firms set up within country will count as negative item. Residents, institutions in country may have invested in banks and other financial institutions in other countries and any interest received from financial investments will count as positive item.
· Net transfers of money
o Payments made between countries when no goods or services change hands. Includes foreign aid and grants (government level). Includes foreign workers sending money back to their families in home country or private gifts sent from person in one country to person in another (individual level)
§ Current account balance = balance of trade in goods + balance of trade in services + net income flows
§ Current account balance is overall balance and may be in deficit or in surplus
o Capital account
§ Measure of buying and selling of assets between countries
§ Capital account called financial account in many countries
§ Measure net change in foreign ownership fo domestic assets
§ If foreign ownership of domestic assets increases more quickly than domestic ownership of foreign assets, there is more money coming into country than going out leading to capital account surplus
§ If domestic ownership of foreign assets increases more quickly than foreign ownership of domestic assets, there is more money going out of country than coming in leading to capital account deficit
- Assets can classified in different ways
o Assets representing ownership à buying property, purchasing business/shares
§ Asset to have positive return and make profits
o Assets representing lending à treasury bills, government bonds, savings account deposits. Simply borrowing and lending on international market
o Classified in other ways like FDI, portfolio investment
- Accounts will never balance in reality because there are too many individual transactions occurring for measurement to be precise
- Balancing item then put into accounts to ensure they balance
Consequences of current account deficit
- Foreign exchange reserves could be used to increase capital account to regain balance with deficit in current account. No country is able to fund long-term current account deficits from its reserves
- High level of buying of assets for ownership is financing current account deficit. Inflow into capital account is funding current account deficit, but not considered harmful because based upon foreign confidence in domestic economy. If foreign ownership of domestic assets become too much then threat to economic sovereignty. Drop in confidence could lead to foreign investors preferring to shift assets to other countries
- Financed by high levels of lending from abroad. High interest rates will have to be paid – short term drain on economy. Governments/people lending money may withdraw their money and place elsewhere
Consequences of current and capital account surpluses
- Current account surplus allows country to have deficit on capital account by increasing official reserve account. One country’s surplus is another country’s deficit leading to protectionism by other countries
- Current account surplus leads to appreciation of currency on foreign exchange markets increasing demand for currency. Will make imports cheaper reducing inflationary pressures and exports more expensive
Two ways to interpret size of country’s current account deficit or surplus
- Consider value of total
- Understand the magnitude of deficit if placed in context of country’s GDP
Methods of correcting persistent current account deficit
- Expenditure switching policies
o Policies implemented by government attempting to switch expenditure of domestic consumers away from imports towards domestically produced goods and services
o Government policies to depreciate or devalue the value of the currency à exports should become less expensive and imports should become more expensive
o Protectionist measures à government can attempt to restrict imports of products by reducing availability by quotas, embargoes. Leads to domestic consumers switching expenditure from imports to domestic products. HOWEVER, government reluctant to use such measures as they tend to lead to retaliation
- Expenditure reducing policies
o Policies implemented by government attempting to reduce overall expenditure in economy hence shifting AD to left. Expenditure of all goods/services should fall including expenditure on imports, current accounts deficit should improve. HOWEVER, conflict between external and internal objectives. Deflating economy could reduce current account deficit but policy leads to fall in domestic employment and fall in rate of economic growth
o Deflationary fiscal policies – increasing direct tax rates/reducing government expenditure
o Deflationary monetary policies – increasing interest rates/reducing money supply should increase capital flows from abroad because foreigners put money into financial institutions attracted by higher rates. Higher costs of borrowing due to high interest rate could act as disincentive to domestic investment and limit potential growth
Marshall Lerner Condition
- Rules that tells us how successful depreciation of currency’s exchange rate will be as means to improve current account deficit in balance of payments
- States reducing value of exchange rate will only be successful in total value of PED for exports and PED for imports is greater than one
- If demand for exports was price inelastic, price falls due to fall in exchange rate then proportionate increase in quantity of exports demanded would be less than proportionate decrease in price of exports and export revenue would fall
- If demand for imports price inelastic, price following fall in exchange rate, then proportionate fall in demand for imports would be less that proportionate increase in price of imports, import expenditure would increase
The J-curve
- Government facing current account deficit can reduce exchange rate of currency to make exports relatively less expensive and improves more expensive satisfying the Marshall Lerner condition of PED exports + PED imports is greater than 1
- In short run, current account deficit gets worst before getting better (J-Curve effect)
- J curve shows what happens to current account deficit over time when exchange rate depreciates
- Price of exports fall but communication not perfect therefore countries will take time to realize that price in this country has fallen
- Countries that have contract cannot be broken quickly either
- Therefore, PED for exports wil be inelastic and export revenue fall as prices have fallen by proportionately more than demand will have risen in short run leading to movement from X – Y
- Price of imports will rise but purchasers of imports will take time to find new suppliers and contracts cannot be broken so have to wait till expired
- Hence in short run, PED for imports will also be inelastic and import expenditure will increase as prices have risen by proportionately more than demand will have fallen leading to increase current account deficit adding to movement from X – Y
- Value of PED for exports and imports increases with time
- By the time current account deficit reaches Y, values of PED increases to point where the sum is greater than one so Marshall Lerner condition satisfied
- The less expensive exports and more expensive imports should lead to increased export revenue and decreased import expenditure, therefore, improvement in current account balance, Y – Z